Home buyers sitting on the fence wondering if now is the right time to buy should consider five factors when making this decision: Jobs, recent sales activity, construction, mortgage availability, and anecdotal evidence. Each of these issues can help consumers make the best choice for their situation and financial circumstance.
- Jobs: Although many areas of the country were deeply impacted by the recession, some areas were less affected by job loss. If employment stability is a concern, prospective buyers should review job-growth data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics at www.bls.gov. The data provided by the Bureau is approximately one month old and shows the direction of the local economy.
- Recent Sales Activity: Housing inventory and sales volume should be taken into consideration while house hunting. A large inventory of homes with few actual transactions can be a negative indicator. On the other hand, if inventory is falling and transactions are rising, that is a good sign. In January, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ Unsold Inventory Index stood at 6.7 months, up from 5 months in December 2010, but down from 5.7 months in January 2010. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
- Construction: Staying up-to-date on the number of building permits issued for local builders is useful for gauging builder sentiment and the future of housing activity. The California Building Industry Association recently announced that California home builders pulled 2,920 total housing permits in January, registering a 5-percent decline compared with a year ago and a 56-percent decline compared with December. However, the Construction Industry Research Board is projecting 62,000 total permits will be pulled in 2011, an increase of 38 percent compared with 2010’s total of 44,893 permits.
- Mortgage Availability: Home buyers hoping to be approved for a mortgage should monitor local lending patterns. Following the financial crisis, most national banks tightened lending standards; however, some local banks haven’t been impacted as much as large lenders and are more willing to lend, even for higher-priced homes.
- Anecdotal Evidence: Although buyers can access home listings online, one of the best ways to monitor the local housing market is to work with a REALTOR® and gather intelligence using their expertise and guidance.
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John J. O’Dell
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