President Obama announced Monday a plan to ease eligibility rules for home owners who want to refinance to take advantage of ultra-low mortgage rates and lower their mortgage payments. The administration hopes that by broadening its requirements for the Home Affordable Program that about 1 million home owners will now be able to qualify.

Here are more details about the newly announced changes to the program:

What is HARP?

It’s a program started in 2009 that allows home owners to refinance their mortgages at lower rates without having to meet the typical requirement of having at least 20 percent of equity in their home to do so. Under current guidelines, many underwater borrowers have been ineligible for the program because their home values had to be no more than 25 percent below what they owed their lender. Also, some home owners were unable to afford the closing costs and appraisal fees to participate.

What’s changing?

Many of the extra fees to participate in the program have been waived, and home owners’ eligibility won’t be contingent on how far their home’s value has fallen.

Who’s eligible?

• Home owners with loans backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac can participate. (Home owners can visit: freddiemac.com/mymortgage or fanniemae.com/loanlookup to determine if their mortgage is owned by either).
• Home owners must be current on their mortgage.

When will it take effect?

The changes could take effect by Dec. 1. HARP also is being extended through 2013 to allow more home owners the opportunity to qualify.

How successful will this be?

The administration hopes that by home owners being able to lower their monthly mortgage payments (with an average annual savings of $2,500 expected), they’ll be more likely to stay current on their mortgage and avoid foreclosure. Also, the administration hopes that it will then free up household money to start spending more on other things, which could provide an overall boost to the economy. However, the administration says it realizes that aiding the housing market requires much more than a refinancing plan.

“This is only one piece of a broader strategy to help the housing market,” says Housing Secretary Shaun Donovan. Donovan also notes federal efforts to help home owners who are delinquent on their mortgages and the unemployed.

Source: “A Guide to Administration’s New Mortgage-Refi Plan,” The Associated Press (Oct. 24, 2011)

 
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The CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) released its 2012 Housing Market Forecast this week during CALIFORNIA REALTOR® EXPO 2011 in San Jose.  The forecast calls for California home sales and median price to improve only slightly in 2012, as the continuation of the tepid economic recovery, uncertainty about the future, and funding challenges for residential mortgages are expected to keep the market moving sideways, with little foreseeable momentum in either direction.

• The forecast for California home sales next year is for a slight 1 percent increase to 496,200 units, following essentially flat sales of 491,100 homes this year compared to the 491,500 homes sold in 2010.
• “Discretionary sellers will play a larger role in next year’s housing market,” said C.A.R. President Beth L. Peerce.  “Those who held off selling in 2011 may list their homes in 2012, thereby improving the mix of homes for sale compared with the last few years.  Additionally, distressed sales will remain an important segment of the overall market as lenders continue to work through the foreclosure process.”
• The California median home price is expected to increase 1.7 percent in 2012 to $296,000 in 2012, according to the forecast.  Following a double-digit increase in the median price in 2010, the median home price will decrease a projected 4 percent in 2011 to $291,000.
• View a video of C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young discussing the 2012 Housing Market Forecast.
• “2012 will be another transition year for the California housing market, as the continued uncertainty about the U.S. financial system, job growth, and the stability of the overall economy remain in the forefront for all market participants,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.  “An improvement in job growth, consumer spending, and corresponding gains in housing are essential to a broader recovery in the economy, but would-be buyers will remain cautious as they weigh these myriad uncertainties against the clear opportunities presented by today’s very affordable housing market.

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A new wave of foreclosures hit in August, as banks picked up the pace in taking action against home owners who have fallen behind on their mortgage payments, RealtyTrac Inc. reported Thursday.

The number of U.S. homes that receiving an initial default notice rose 33 percent in August from July. That increase represents the biggest monthly gain in four years, according to RealtyTrac.

“This is really the first time we’ve seen a significant increase in the number of new foreclosure actions,” says Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac. “It’s still possible this is a blip, but I think it’s much more likely we’re seeing the beginning of a trend here.”

The uptick in foreclosure activity follows after months of a slowdown in foreclosures, which started last fall, with banks reviewing foreclosure policies and paperwork after facing lawsuits and criticism over how they processed foreclosures. Some banks even temporarily halted their foreclosures as they more carefully reviewed pending cases. The slowdown was also blamed on court delays in some states.

But some housing experts say the increase in foreclosure activity actually could be good for the housing market. A faster turnaround in foreclosures could help clear the glut of shadow inventory hovering over the market, which many say has caused home values to plummet.

The “bloated foreclosure pipeline now presents the greatest obstacle to a housing market recovery,” said Josh Levin, a Citi analyst. About 3.7 million more homes are in some stage of foreclosure than in a normal housing market, Levin said.

Banks are on track to repossess about 800,000 homes this year — down from more than 1 million last year, Sharga said.

Overall, 228,098 U.S. homes — or one in every 570 U.S. households — received a foreclosure-related notice in August, a 7 percent increase from July. However, that represents a 33 percent decline from August 2010.

Source: “Report: Mortgage Default Warnings Spiked in August, Signaling Potential New Foreclosure Wave,” Associated Press (Sept. 15, 2011)

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Standard & Poor’s estimates that it would take nearly four years — or 47 months — for the housing market to work through its shadow inventory at the current rate. While that number is still high, it marks an improvement over S&P’s first quarter report that had estimated 52 months.

Shadow inventory represents homes that are in the foreclosure system but haven’t hit the market yet. S&P defines shadow inventory as foreclosure and REO properties in 90-day delinquency or worse.

“In conjunction with stable liquidation rates, we believe these are positive signs that the amount of time it will take to clear this ‘shadow inventory’ should continue to decline over the next year,” S&P analysts said.

Delays from mortgage servicers in processing foreclosures likely will cause more than 1 million foreclosures to be postponed until next year, RealtyTrac recently reported.

As such, “the shadow inventory will continue to jeopardize the housing market’s recovery until servicers are able to improve liquidation times,” S&P said. “However, if and when that happens, an influx of homes will likely enter the market, increasing supply and driving prices down further.”

Shadow inventories are largest in New York, where S&P estimates it will take 144 months — or 12 years — to work through foreclosure properties at the current rate. That is down slightly from 146 months in the first quarter.

Source: “Standard & Poor’s: Shadow Inventory Levels Begin to Improve,” HousingWire (Aug. 17, 2011)

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On Tuesday, U.S. bank regulators submitted a proposal that would require lenders to originate mortgages with at least a 20 percent down payment if they want to repackage the loan to sell to other investors without keeping some of the risk on their books.  The bank regulators say this would create strong incentives for responsible lending and borrowing.

• The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board and the Federal Reserve agreed to seek public comment on the proposal.  However, the rule is expected to have little near-term effect because loans sold to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA and VA loans would be exempt.  The U.S. government currently backs nearly 90 percent of home mortgages.
• The CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® and the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® oppose the proposal because the 20 percent down payment requirement is too high and would make it difficult for many people to purchase homes, causing further deceleration in the housing market.  Strong evidence shows that responsible lending standards and ensuring a borrower’s ability to repay have the greatest impact on reducing lender risk.
• “We need to strike a balance between reducing investor risk and providing affordable mortgage credit,” said NAR President Ron Phipps.  “Better underwriting and credit quality standards have greatly reduced risk. Adding unnecessarily high minimum down payment requirements will only exclude hundreds of thousands of buyers from home ownership, despite their creditworthiness and proven ability to afford the monthly payment, because of the dramatic increase in the wealth required to purchase a home.”
• Saving the necessary down payment has always been the principal obstacle to buyers seeking to purchase their first home. Proposals requiring high down payments will only drive more borrowers to FHA, increase costs for borrowers by raising interest rates and fees, and effectively price many eligible borrowers out of the housing market,” added Phipps.

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Abandoned Subdivision Photo by Tyson Jerry

Although the steep decline of home prices in California ended in spring 2009, the weakness in the housing market after the expiration of federal tax credits for home buyers last year has led to some speculation as to whether the recovery is sustainable.  Five experts, including Leslie Appleton-Young, the chief economist for the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, were asked to provide their view on the state of real estate and what they think is needed to get the housing market moving again

• In terms of home prices, the experts differed slightly with the majority predicting that home prices will remain flat throughout 2011.  Ms. Appleton-Young predicts home prices will rise 2 percent this year, while a foreclosure expert predicts housing prices to decline 5 percent in 2011.

• According to Ms. Appleton-Young, there is little chance of home prices returning to their previous peak levels anytime soon.  “We are in a slow-moving recovery with prices stabilized at the moderate and low end,” she said.  “We are still seeing price attrition and price softening at the upper ends of the market.”

• California’s recovery will hinge on location, according to Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.  Areas between El Centro and Sacramento likely will not see a return to peak prices for a long time.  However, places like La Jolla, Laguna, Huntington Beach, Atherton, Palo Alto, the city of San Francisco, and Marin County could experience a return to their peak prices within the next five years, according to Mr. Green.

• Foreclosure expert Bruce Norris of the Norris Group believes the market is being artificially boosted by government programs and is set to fall further this year.  Mr. Norris believes the demand for housing is most-needed for a sustainable recovery.

• California’s coastal markets will make a return once the job market improves, according to Emile Haddad, chief executive at FivePoint Communities Inc.  In turn, that will lift consumer confidence.  However, California’s inland areas are more likely to lag behind, and builders will have to reconsider the kind of product they offer in certain places.

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The combination of affordable home prices, low interest rates, and the federal tax credit for home buyers have created an opportune time for many buyers to purchase a home.  Many real estate analysts also believe that most housing markets have stabilized, but that some markets may decline further.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

• Buyers should keep in mind that housing markets are local and can vary greatly from one neighborhood to the next.  Working with a REALTOR® familiar with the area in which the buyer is searching can help the buyer select a house that best suits their needs.
• California’s housing market has shown signs of stabilization since early last year.  Sales of existing, single-family homes bottomed out in August 2007, and the median home price reached its trough in February 2009.  In January, California’s median home price was 17.2 percent above the low for the current cycle.
• The federal tax credit for home buyers was extended and expanded late last year.  Qualified first-time buyers may be eligible to receive a tax credit of up to $8,000 on homes purchased before April 30, 2010.  Repeat buyers may be eligible for a tax credit of up to $6,500.  Visit First Time Home Buyers Credit Answers for more information about the federal tax credit for home buyers, including eligibility requirements.
• The Federal Reserve has helped maintain low interest rates, which, in turn, has assisted home buyers.  However, the agency plans to stop purchasing mortgage-backed securities at the end of this month, which likely will increase rates on 30-year fixed mortgages.  Buyers may be able to lock in a low interest rate by working with their lender.

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Are we finally be nearing the bottom of the market? I understand in talking to some real estate agents that inventory in some areas of Placer County are starting to get thin. Accoridng to Trulia.com, price reductions of homes on the market declined 21 percent as of February 1.

This is a significant decrease compared to November 2009, when 26 percent of homes had at least one price reduction

The total dollar amount cut from home prices dropped to $22.6 billion as of Feb. 1, down from $28.1 billion in November, a 19 percent decrease.

The average discount for price-reduced homes is holding steady at 11 percent off the original listing price.

Here are the cities with the largest decrease in listings with price reductions between last November and this month, according to Trulia.
• San Francisco, -46
• Oakland, Calif., -43
• Sacramento, -42
• San Jose, -40
• Indianapolis, -39
• Seattle, -37
• San Diego, -33
• New York, -33

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Existing-home sales fell as expected in December after first-time buyers rushed to complete deals during the months leading up to the original November deadline for the tax credit. However, prices rose from December 2008 and annual sales improved in 2009, according to the National Association of REALTORS^®.

Existing-home sales—including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops—fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million units in December from 6.54 million in November, but remain 15 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in December 2008.

There were approximately 5,156,000 existing-home sales in 2009, which was 4.9 percent higher than the 4,913,000 transactions recorded in 2008. It was the first annual sales gain since 2005.

Tax Credit Creates Swing in Market

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says there were no surprises in the data.

“It’s significant that home sales remain above year-ago levels, but the market is going through a period of swings driven by the tax credit,” he said. “We’ll likely have another surge in the spring as home buyers take advantage of the extended and expanded tax credit. By early summer the overall market should benefit from more balanced inventory, and sales are on track to rise again in 2010.”

However, Yun says, the job market remains a concern and could dampen the housing recovery. “Job creation is key to a continued recovery in the second half of the year,” he says.

An NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 43 percent of homes in December, down from 51 percent in November. Repeat buyers rose to 42 percent of transactions in December from 37 percent in November; the remaining sales were to investors.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,300 in December, which is 1.5 percent higher than December 2008.

“The median price rose because of an increased number of mid- to upper-priced homes in the sales mix,” Yun says. It was the first year-over-year gain in median price since August 2007.

Falling Inventories

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said market conditions are challenging in some areas.

“There’s a shortage of lower-priced homes for sale in much of the country, resulting in multiple bids in some areas,” she says. “Raw unsold inventory has been trending down. As the market heats up again this spring, buyers may need to be prepared to move quickly on a particular home.”

Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 6.6 percent to 3.29 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.2-month supply at the current sales pace. That is an increase from a 6.5-month supply in November.

Raw unsold inventory is 11.1 percent below a year ago, is at the lowest level since March 2006, and is 28.2 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

Distressed homes, which accounted for 32 percent of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

For all of 2009, the median price was $173,500, down 12.4 percent from $198,100 in 2008. Distressed homes accounted for 36 percent of total sales last year.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.93 percent in December from 4.88 percent in November; the rate was 5.29 percent in December 2008.

Single-Family Home, Condo Sales Dip

Single-family home sales fell 16.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.79 million in December from a pace of 5.76 million in November. Sales are 12.7 percent above the 4.25 million level in December 2008. For all of 2009, single-family sales rose 5 percent to 4,566,000.

The median existing single-family home price was $177,500 in December, which is 1.4 percent above a year ago. For all last year, the median price for a single-family home was $173,200, down 11.9 percent from 2008.

Meanwhile, existing condominium and co-op sales fell 15.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 660,000 in December from 780,000 in November. Sales are 34.7 percent higher than the 490,000-unit pace a year ago. For all of 2009, condo sales rose 4.8 percent to 590,000 units.

The median existing condo price was $183,700 in December, up 1 percent from December 2008. For all of last year, the median condo price was $176,100, which is 16.1 percent below 2008.

Regional Breakdown

Here are existing-home sales figures by region:

• Northeast: sales dropped 19.5 percent to an annual level of 910,000 in December but are 21.3 percent above a year ago. Median price: $241,700, up 3.2 percent from December 2008.
• Midwest: sales fell 25.8 percent in December to a level of 1.15 million but are 8.5 percent higher than December 2008. Median price: $143,200, which is 1.8 percent above a year ago.
• South: sales dropped 16.3 percent to an annual pace of 2.01 million in December but are 15.5 percent above December 2008. Median price: $152,000, down 1 percent from a year ago.
• West: sales declined 4.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.38 million in December but are 15 percent higher than a year ago. Median price: $236,000, up 2.7 percent from December 2008.

— NAR

Yun credited the home buyer tax credit with unleashing sales on the lower-end of the housing market this year, bringing up to 400,000 first-time buyers into the market who wouldn’t have bought otherwise. That influx tightened inventories of starter homes, shored up prices, and helped reduce households’ fear over continuing price drops.

This virtuous cycle will continue now that the federal government has extended the credit to mid-2010 and expanded it to make a smaller credit available to repeat buyers and to households with higher incomes. “The key is stabilizing prices and preserving household wealth,” he says.

Yun predicts the supply of homes to stabilize at the historic norm of six to seven months. Homes above $500,000 will remain elevated in the near-term, but that weakness will be offset by a hefty drop in starter-home inventories, which are running at about a five months supply.

The tightening inventory at all price points will help improve market performance by bringing supply into better balance with demand, but the added sales, particularly on the higher end, will also increase the number and quality of the market comparables used by appraisers to assign valuations. Once appraisals improve, foreclosures will ease, blunting their drag on the market and making it less likely that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and even FHA will need help from the taxpayer.

“Then we’ll be set for a durable economic expansion,” he said.

New-home sales, which comprise about 10 percent of the market, will continue at suppressed levels–about 550,000 units, down from more than a million during the boom–mainly because builders have scaled projects way back, in part because financing isn’t available.

“Weakness in new-home sales shouldn’t be viewed as tepid demand,” he said.

Even under the most positive economic scenario, unemployment will remain elevated through 2010. Yun is predicting unemployment to stay near double-digits going into 2011, qualifying this recession, as some economists have, as the “Great Recession.”

Source: Robert Freedman REALTOR® Magazine