Tag Archives: mortgage

4 Keys to Real Estate Recovery

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Photo Courtesy of: http://onepicinspires.blogspot.com/

In order to have a fully recovered housing market and economic recovery, economists point to the need for four positive indicators:

1. A healthy job market with low stable unemployment;

2. Mortgage delinquencies that have returned to historical averages;

3. Home prices consistent with an affordable mortgage payment–to–income ratio; and

4. Home sales that are in the range of historical norms.

So, is the housing market inching closer?

Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for January takes a look at how the housing market is performing among these four indicators. Economists note that the unemployment rate — while inching down — still remains high at 6.7 percent. Meanwhile, mortgage delinquencies have fallen to 5.88 percent — nearly half of their peak rate but still higher than the national average of about 2 percent, Freddie notes.

Home prices still have some room to grow without outpacing income growth, economists say.

“From 1999–2006, mortgage payments on a hypothetical 30-year fixed-rate mortgage would have increased by 50 percent more than income growth,” Freddie Mac notes in the report. “Currently, payment-to-income ratios are only 60 percent of the level we had in 1999, suggesting room for continued housing growth.”

Finally, home sales have risen over the past two years but remain below levels from a nearly a decade ago. Home sales, historically, average a rate of about 6 percent of the housing stock every year. They dropped to 4 percent during the housing crisis. Economists are predicting a 5.7 percent pace in 2014.

“As we start 2014, the housing recovery continues its steady pace,” Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “House-price gains will likely moderate from last year’s pace but rise about 5 percent in national indexes. Home sales, as well as other key indicators, continue to trend in the right direction, although in some markets we are seeing the sales recovery strengthen while many others remain weak.”

Source: Freddie Mac and “Are We There Yet? Freddie Mac Says Recovery Has a Ways to Go,” Mortgage News Daily (Jan. 16, 2014)

Read More

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FHA: Unsung Hero of the Recovery

 

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Housing Affordability Declines as Interest Rates Go UP

Picture courtesy of http://www.treadstonemortgage.com/
Picture courtesy of http://www.treadstonemortgage.com/

The majority of housing markets remain affordable to the average family, but rising mortgage rates and rising housing prices are causing more families to have to stretch financially, according to Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for December.

“Rising mortgage rates and rising housing prices over the past six months are making it more challenging for the typical family to purchase a home without stretching beyond their means, especially in the Northeast and along the Pacific Coast,” says Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Like most, we expect mortgage rates to rise over the coming year, so it’s critical we start to see more job gains and income growth in the coming year. This will help to keep payment-to-income ratios in balance — an important factor not only for first-time buyers but for sustaining homeownership levels among existing owners.”

According to Freddie Mac’s report, more than 70 percent of the nation’s housing stock remained affordable to the typical family in the third quarter at a 4.4 percent interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. However, that percentage decreases to about 63 percent at a 5 percent mortgage rate;  55 percent at a 6 percent interest rate; and 35 percent at a 7 percent interest rate.

Source: Freddie Mac

 

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Housing Affordability Falls to Five Year Low

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Picture courtesy of themetapicture.com

Housing affordability decreased in the third quarter as home prices and mortgage rates were on the rise and put housing out of reach for more families, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index.

NAHB’s index showed that 64.5 percent of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of July and end of September were affordable to families earning the nationwide median income of $64,400. That represents a drop from 69.3 percent in the second quarter, and marks the largest index drop since the second quarter of 2004.

“Housing affordability is being negatively affected by a ‘perfect storm’ scenario,” says NAHB Chairman Rick Judson. “With markets across the country recovering, home values are strengthening at the same time that the cost of building homes is rising due to tightened supplies of building materials, developable lots, and labor.”

While housing affordability has fallen since its peak in early 2012, NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe says that a family earning a median income can still afford 65 percent of homes recently sold.

The National Association of REALTORS(R) recently reported that housing affordability has fallen to a five-year low as home price increases have outpaced income growth. “Expected rising mortgage rates will further lower affordability in upcoming months,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

Most Affordable Markets

Indianapolis-Camel, Ind., and Syracuse, N.Y., tied as the most affordable major housing markets in the country. In both metros, 93.3 percent of all new and existing homes sold in the third quarter were affordable to families earning the areas’ median incomes of $65,100 and $65,800, respectively.

Other major metros ranking high in affordability, according to the index, included:

  • Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pa.
  • Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.
  • Buffalo-Niagara Falls, N.Y.

Least Affordable Housing Markets

Meanwhile, the San Francisco metro area continues to be the priciest housing market in the nation for the fourth consecutive month. Only 16 percent of homes sold in the third quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $101,200, according to the index.

Other major metros that were among the least affordable in the nation included:

  • Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.
  • Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif.
  • New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J.
  • San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Read More

The 5 Priciest, Cheapest Places for Home Buyers  

REALTORS® Go the Distance for Habitat

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Housing Bubbles?

 

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Photo credit: http://www.desicolours.com/

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2013

The National Association of REALTORS®‘ home price affordability index dropped below a long-term trend line, once again igniting fears of a housing bubble. But some experts say the worries are being blown out of proportion.

The latest reading of the index, which reflects July data, marked the lowest level of home affordability since July 2009 and the fourth month that the index has come in below trend. The index measures the household income needed to qualify for a traditional mortgage for a median-priced single-family home.

Higher mortgage rates and home prices are causing affordability to drop. Home prices have surged 13.4 percent compared to a year ago, and mortgage rates are at their highest averages since February 2012. Wages are rising — but not as fast as home prices.

The West has posted some of the biggest drops in affordability, as home prices have climbed 18.4 percent in the region in the last year.

NAR’s affordability index peaked in January at 210.7, and it has been falling ever since. It now stands at 157.8. An index reading above 100 indicates that median income is higher than needed to qualify for a mortgage. “A score of 157.8 officially indicates that a household earning the median income has 57.8 percent more income than needed to get a mortgage on a median-priced home,” CNBC reports.

But a recent paper by three economists from Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania suggests that when the index falls below trend for at least three months, it may be an indication of the beginning of a housing bubble. The economists point to the beginning of 2004, when home affordability fell below its long-term trend. Some say that marked the beginning of the last housing bubble. Housing affordability stayed below the long-term trend until December 2008, the economists note.

Housing affordability this year dropped below the long-term trend in April and has stayed there through July, CNBC reports. But even signs of a housing bubble don’t mean home prices are doomed to crash, analysts say.

NAR experts write at the Economists’ Outlook blog that housing affordability likely could strengthen in the coming months “as prices have decreased from a month ago and most likely reached their seasonal peak for the year. Even with rates increasing, certain metro areas have healthy inventory levels, and consumers can still look to purchase before those historically low rates are a thing of the past.”

Source:  “Latest Housing Affordability Data,” NAR’s Economists’ Outlook Blog (Sept. 6, 2013) and “Yep, it’s another housing bubble,” CNBC (Sept. 10, 2013)

 

 

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Mortgage Rates Continue to Rise

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Photo credit: http://onepicinspires.blogspot.com/2013/01/strange-and-unusual-houses-around-world.html

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey(R) (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates continuing to trend higher for the week on more market speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce future bond purchases following June’s strong employment report.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.51 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending July 11, 2013, up from last week when it averaged 4.29 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.56 percent.
  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.53 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.39 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.86 percent.
  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.10 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 2.74 percent.
  • 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.66 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, unchanged from last week. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 2.69 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for the Regional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

 

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Pending Home Sales Highest Level Since Late 2006

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Pending home sales rose in May to the highest level since late 2006, implying a possible spark as mortgage interest rates began to rise, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 6.7 percent to 112.3 in May from a downwardly revised 105.2 in April, and is 12.1 percent above May 2012 when it was 100.2; the data reflect contracts but not closings.

Contract activity is at the strongest pace since December 2006 when it reached 112.8; pending sales have been above year-ago levels for the past 25 months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there may be a fence-jumping effect.  “Even with limited choices, it appears some of the rise in contract signings could be from buyers wanting to take advantage of current affordability conditions before mortgage interest rates move higher,” he said.  “This implies a continuation of double-digit price increases from a year earlier, with a strong push from pent-up demand.”

Yun upgraded the price forecast for 2013, with the national median existing-home price expected to rise more than 10 percent to nearly $195,000.  This would be the strongest increase since 2005 when the median increased 12.4 percent.

Existing-home sales are projected to increase 8.5 to 9.0 percent, reaching about 5.07 million in 2013, the highest in seven years; it would be slightly above the 5.03 million total recorded in 2007.

The PHSI in the Northeast was unchanged at 92.3 in May but is 14.3 percent above a year ago.  In the Midwest the index jumped 10.2 percent to 115.5 in May and is 22.2 percent higher than May 2012.  Pending home sales in the South rose 2.8 percent to an index of 121.8 in May and are 12.3 percent above a year ago.  The index in the West jumped 16.0 percent in May to 109.7, but with limited inventory is only 1.1 percent above May 2012.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.  For additional commentary and consumer information, visit www.houselogic.com and http://retradio.com.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales.  In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined.  By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

Source: National Association of Realtors®.

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Pending Home Sales at Strongest Pace Since 2006

 

Photo credit: http://look-estates.com/
Photo credit: http://look-estates.com/

Pending home sales rose in May to the highest level since late 2006, implying a possible spark as mortgage interest rates began to rise, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 6.7 percent to 112.3 in May from a downwardly revised 105.2 in April, and is 12.1 percent above May 2012 when it was 100.2. Contract activity is at its strongest pace since December 2006, when it reached 112.8. Also, pending sales have been above year-ago levels for the past 25 months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there may be a fence-jumping effect.  “Even with limited choices, it appears some of the rise in contract signings could be from buyers wanting to take advantage of current affordability conditions before mortgage interest rates move higher,” he said.  “This implies a continuation of double-digit price increases from a year earlier, with a strong push from pent-up demand.”

Regionally, the index went unchaged in the Northeast, but is 14.3 percent above a year ago.  In the Midwest, it jumped 10.2 percent to 115.5 in May and is 22.2 percent higher than May 2012.  Pending home sales in the South rose 2.8 percent and 16 percent in the West.

Source: NAR

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Bizarre Mortgage Requests Delay Borrowers

funny-fish-house

Underwriters are being extra vigilant in verifying every detail of a mortgage application, and some of their requests for information, borrowers say, are downright odd.

For example, one borrower says an underwriter demanded a letter from his doctor that an illness he had would never come back. Another borrower says that an underwriter told her she needed to get verification from her employer on her employment status when she listed “homemaker” as her occupation.

A borrower said an underwriter asked him for a letter of explanation on a $6 deposit he made (the borrower earned $10,000 a month at the time).

“I don’t know whether to laugh or cry,” says Karen Deis, who operates MortgageCurrentcy.com, and who collected dozens of anecdotes on her Facebook page about bizarre underwriting requests. “People are scared. All you hear about are buybacks, audits, and people losing their jobs” because they didn’t verify this or confirm that.

Banks are requiring more documentation when approving a mortgage, and some of the extra requests have caught borrowers off-guard. For example, Deis says one borrower said that an underwriter demanded a letter from her explaining why she changed her name after she got married. A single father who had custody of his child said he was asked for a letter saying he did not have to pay child support. Another borrower who had been out of school for years said he was asked to produce his high school transcript.

Despite some of the extra documentation requests, recent surveys are showing that banks lately are easing up slightly on their underwriting standards.

However, “even though there has been some loosening, what they’re asking of people is not changing,” says Jonathan Corr, Ellie Mae president. “It’s still pretty comprehensive, and we’re going to continue to hear stories like this.”

Source: “Underwriting requests are getting weirder,” The Chicago Tribune (June 21, 2013)

: Daily Real Estate News.
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If You Are A Home Buyer, You’ve Missed The Boat on Low Interest Rates

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Mortgage rates and home prices are on the rise, and some home buyers who were waiting around for the housing market to reach bottom are realizing now they may have missed the boat.

Mortgage rates are inching up, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 3.91 percent last week — up from 3.3 percent in early May, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac.

“It’s unlikely that rates will ever be that low again,” says Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist.

The Fed has been keeping interest rates at record lows by buying up to $85 billion a month in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, which has helped bolster the housing market.

“Up until recently, expectations were that the Fed would begin to taper purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury bonds late in 2013, but that time frame appears to have moved to September, possibly sooner,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com, a mortgage information company.

As the economy continues to gain traction, interest rates are expected to continue to increase, Gumbinger says, since low rates often are associated with a distressed economy.

But even if mortgage rates move up a percentage point or two, housing experts note that mortgage rates will still be low by historical standards.

“The 30-year [mortgage rate] hit a 37-year low in 2003 at 5.23 percent,” Gumbinger says. “That was the previous low-watermark prior to this financial crisis, and it’s likely we will move closer to that mark as we grind forward.”

Source: “Why You Missed the Boat On Record-Low Mortgage Rates,” CNNMoney (June 6, 2013)

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