Tag Archives: home prices

Higher Prices for Newly Constructed Homes

Photo credit: www.pleated-jeans.com
Photo credit: www.pleated-jeans.com

Many of the nation’s largest builders are raising their prices, even as existing-home prices are beginning to moderate.

For example, homebuilder KB Home has had average prices for its new homes soar 23 percent annually. Lennar has raised the average price on its new homes by 16 percent annually in the third quarter, now averaging $291,000. The average price of all existing homes was $258,000, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

“The big picture is that new-build house prices fell less than existing house prices during the crash and have risen more during the recovery,” says Paul Diggle at Capital Economics.

While prices are up for new homes, both Lennar and KB Home announced this week a weaker pace for new orders. Lennar officials blamed the slowdown on rising mortgage rates and the double-digit percentage increases in home prices this year.

“We see strong, viable, fundamental demand out there, but it has cooled a little bit,” Rick Beckwitt, Lennar’s president, said during a recent earnings call. “As a result, from a pricing standpoint, we have selected some of our inventory and increased incentives associated with that inventory.”

Analyst Ivy Zelman doesn’t believe new home prices are inflated or priced at an abnormal premium over existing homes.

“In Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada, we conclude that prices are still 15 percent lower than the 2006 peak, which excludes an adjustment for an increasing size of new homes and would be further compounded by seven years of inflation,” Zelman says.

Source: “Forget easing prices, new homes are up, up, up,” CNBC (Sept. 24, 2013) and “New-Home Orders Slower for Lennar, KB Home,” The Wall Street Journal (Sept. 24, 2013):  DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS

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Housing Bubbles?

 

Photo credit: http://www.desicolours.com/
Photo credit: http://www.desicolours.com/

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2013

The National Association of REALTORS®‘ home price affordability index dropped below a long-term trend line, once again igniting fears of a housing bubble. But some experts say the worries are being blown out of proportion.

The latest reading of the index, which reflects July data, marked the lowest level of home affordability since July 2009 and the fourth month that the index has come in below trend. The index measures the household income needed to qualify for a traditional mortgage for a median-priced single-family home.

Higher mortgage rates and home prices are causing affordability to drop. Home prices have surged 13.4 percent compared to a year ago, and mortgage rates are at their highest averages since February 2012. Wages are rising — but not as fast as home prices.

The West has posted some of the biggest drops in affordability, as home prices have climbed 18.4 percent in the region in the last year.

NAR’s affordability index peaked in January at 210.7, and it has been falling ever since. It now stands at 157.8. An index reading above 100 indicates that median income is higher than needed to qualify for a mortgage. “A score of 157.8 officially indicates that a household earning the median income has 57.8 percent more income than needed to get a mortgage on a median-priced home,” CNBC reports.

But a recent paper by three economists from Robert Morris University in Pennsylvania suggests that when the index falls below trend for at least three months, it may be an indication of the beginning of a housing bubble. The economists point to the beginning of 2004, when home affordability fell below its long-term trend. Some say that marked the beginning of the last housing bubble. Housing affordability stayed below the long-term trend until December 2008, the economists note.

Housing affordability this year dropped below the long-term trend in April and has stayed there through July, CNBC reports. But even signs of a housing bubble don’t mean home prices are doomed to crash, analysts say.

NAR experts write at the Economists’ Outlook blog that housing affordability likely could strengthen in the coming months “as prices have decreased from a month ago and most likely reached their seasonal peak for the year. Even with rates increasing, certain metro areas have healthy inventory levels, and consumers can still look to purchase before those historically low rates are a thing of the past.”

Source:  “Latest Housing Affordability Data,” NAR’s Economists’ Outlook Blog (Sept. 6, 2013) and “Yep, it’s another housing bubble,” CNBC (Sept. 10, 2013)

 

 

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My House is Worth Money, Time for a Divorce

Photo credit: http://www.lolriot.com/
Photo credit: http://www.lolriot.com/

“So many couples have been living together and biding their time,” says Leigh Sigman, an Orlando lawyer. “I know many people who have coasted for years and touched base with me periodically — until they got equity in their homes.”

During the housing market crash, home prices fell dramatically in some areas, causing the home in a marriage to become one asset that no one wanted in a divorce because of the large amount of mortgage debt it carried, says Sigman.

But some metros are seeing that as home values rise, divorce rates are too.

“I have seen many of the deals we’re doing have involved a divorce — selling a house because of it or buying because of it,” says Robert Tenaglia, a real estate professional in Orlando. “When people don’t have equity and don’t have money, it dissuades them from going through the final step.”

Many couples may need the equity from the house sale to cover the costs of starting a new life and for a down payment on a new home or an apartment deposit, Tenaglia says.

Source: “Divorce and Home Values: Till Equity Do Us Part,” RISMedia (Sept. 6, 2013)

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Home Owners Equity Rising Above Water

Jenga Style Homes Photo courtesy of Pleated-jeans.com
Jenga Style Homes Photo courtesy of Pleated-jeans.com

In the next 15 months, 8.3 million home owners — about 18 percent of home owners who have a mortgage — are expected to gain enough equity to be in a better position to sell their homes, according to RealtyTrac’s September report on home equity.

“Steadily rising home prices are lifting all boats in this housing market and should spill over into more inventory of homes for sale in the coming months,” says Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “Home owners who already have ample equity are quickly building on that equity, while the 8.3 million homeowners on the fence with little or no equity are on track to regain enough equity to sell before 2015 if home prices continue to increase at the rate of 1.33 percent per month that they have since bottoming out in March 2012.

The 8.3 million of home owners have a range of 10 percent negative equity to 10 percent positive equity, according to RealtyTrac. Home owners with low equity may face challenges in selling a home due to the cost of the sale and having a down payment on a new home. As equity rises, more home owners are in the position to sell their home without having to resort such actions as a short sale.

The report also notes that one in four home owners in foreclosure also were found to have positive equity. Home owners with equity may have a better chance at selling their homes before letting the foreclosure process run its course, Blomquist says.

But that’s “assuming they realize they have equity and don’t miss the opportunity to leverage that equity,” Blomquist says. “Even home owners deeply underwater have reason for hope, with about 150,000 each month rising past the 25 percent negative equity milestone — although it will certainly take years rather than months before most of those homeowners have enough equity to sell other than via short sale.”

Source: National Association of Realtor©

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Foreclosures Down 29% From Year Ago

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Photo credit: http://www.freeimageslive.com/galleries/buildings/structures/pics/oldbridge.jpg

Foreclosures are continuing a steady fall, as home prices rise and the housing market picks up nationwide.

About 1 million homes were in some stage of foreclosure in May, down from 1.4 million in May 2012, a 29 percent decline, according to CoreLogic’s latest foreclosure report. As of May, the foreclosure inventory represented 2.6 percent of all homes with a mortgage — down from 3.5 percent a year prior.

There were 52,000 foreclosures completed nationwide in May, down 27 percent year over year. However, the numbers are still elevated compared to what’s considered normal for the market. Prior to the decline in the housing market in 2007, completed foreclosures averaged 21,000 per month between 2000 and 2006, according to CoreLogic.

Since September 2008 — the start of the financial crisis — about 4.4 million foreclosures have been completed, CoreLogic’s data shows.

Meanwhile, shadow inventory is down 34 percent from reaching its 2010 peak. It was under 2 million units in April, representing a 5.3 month supply.

“We continue to see a sharp drop in foreclosures around the country and, with it, a decrease in the size of the shadow inventory,” says Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Affordability, despite the rise in home prices over the past year, and consumer confidence are big contributors to these positive trends. We are particularly encouraged by the broad-based nature of the housing market recovery so far in 2013.”

The stock of seriously delinquent homes, which is the main driver of shadow inventory, is at the lowest level since December 2008, adds Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.  “Over the last year, it has decreased in 42 states by double-digit figures, resulting in rapid declines in shadow inventory for the first quarter of 2013,” Fleming says.

The following five states account for nearly half of all completed foreclosures nationally and had the highest number of completed foreclosures in the last 12 months ending in May:

  • Florida
  • California
  • Michigan
  • Texas
  • Georgia

Source: CoreLogic

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Pending Home Sales Highest Level Since Late 2006

House-on-stilts

Pending home sales rose in May to the highest level since late 2006, implying a possible spark as mortgage interest rates began to rise, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 6.7 percent to 112.3 in May from a downwardly revised 105.2 in April, and is 12.1 percent above May 2012 when it was 100.2; the data reflect contracts but not closings.

Contract activity is at the strongest pace since December 2006 when it reached 112.8; pending sales have been above year-ago levels for the past 25 months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there may be a fence-jumping effect.  “Even with limited choices, it appears some of the rise in contract signings could be from buyers wanting to take advantage of current affordability conditions before mortgage interest rates move higher,” he said.  “This implies a continuation of double-digit price increases from a year earlier, with a strong push from pent-up demand.”

Yun upgraded the price forecast for 2013, with the national median existing-home price expected to rise more than 10 percent to nearly $195,000.  This would be the strongest increase since 2005 when the median increased 12.4 percent.

Existing-home sales are projected to increase 8.5 to 9.0 percent, reaching about 5.07 million in 2013, the highest in seven years; it would be slightly above the 5.03 million total recorded in 2007.

The PHSI in the Northeast was unchanged at 92.3 in May but is 14.3 percent above a year ago.  In the Midwest the index jumped 10.2 percent to 115.5 in May and is 22.2 percent higher than May 2012.  Pending home sales in the South rose 2.8 percent to an index of 121.8 in May and are 12.3 percent above a year ago.  The index in the West jumped 16.0 percent in May to 109.7, but with limited inventory is only 1.1 percent above May 2012.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.  For additional commentary and consumer information, visit www.houselogic.com and http://retradio.com.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales.  In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined.  By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

Source: National Association of Realtors®.

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More Home Owners Regain Long-Lost Equity

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Photo credit: http://xaxor.com/funny-pics/funny-crazy-real-estate-signs.html

Rising home prices are helping to propel more home owners back into positive equity. About 850,000 residential properties returned to positive equity during the first quarter of 2013, according to new data released by CoreLogic. That brings the total to 1.7 million borrowers who have regained positive equity in the past year.

In total, 39 million residential properties now have positive equity.

“The negative equity burden continues to recede across the country thanks largely to rising home prices,” says Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

By the end of the first quarter, 19.8 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage — or 19.7 million — still had negative equity. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2012, 10.5 million or 21.7 percent of residential properties were underwater.

The states with the highest percentage of negative equity properties are:

  • Nevada: 45.4% of the properties there are still underwater
  • Florida: 38.1% underwater
  • Michigan: 32% underwater

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Source: “CoreLogic: Nearly 1 million houses float back into positive equity,”

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Housing Bubble Concerns Brew in Key Markets

bubble-house

Skyrocketing home prices in a few markets have some analysts concerned that prices are on the rise too fast and could ultimately hamper the housing recovery.

“In many markets, fundamentals are improving as unemployment rates continue declining, while low prices and low interest rates have affordability high,” according to analysts for Fitch Ratings, a credit rating agency. “However, especially in cities that never fully unwound the mid-2000s bubble, rapidly increasing price levels are a potential cause for concern.”

Many of the areas of concern are in California, where home prices have  posted gains of 13 percent in the past year alone, according to analysts.

Limited housing inventories of for-sale homes mixed with rising buyer demand are mostly behind the rising home prices.

“We believe this level of housing demand is likely to abate once the pent-up demand is satisfied,” Fitch analysts said. “The supply is also artificially low, as recent regulations have limited the pace of foreclosure sales and the large percentage of underwater borrowers continues to hope for future price increases to be able to sell their homes at a profit.”

Source: “A new bubble forecasted in key real estate markets,” HousingWire (May 29, 2013)

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Appraisals Catching Up to Rising Home Values

 

Hard to find comparable sales on this home. Photo credit: http://hekk-m.com/post180818332/
Hard to find comparable sales on this home. Photo credit: http://hekk-m.com/post180818332/

 

In recent months, real estate professionals have had to hold their breath as they waited for an appraisal on a property to come back. Would it be lower than the agreed-upon selling price  — and by how much?

Many real estate professionals have blamed a high number of derailed transactions on low-ball appraisals.

But now the industry is noticing a change in appraised values: Appraisals are getting more in line with the agreed upon selling price, CNNMoney reports.

Appraisers are valuing homes at or above their selling prices as home prices nationwide climb and inventories of homes decrease, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®.

For example, in Wallingford, Wash., real estate pro Michael Ackerman told CNNMoney that he was concerned a transaction would fall apart when a buyer agreed to pay $755,000 for a home since other comparable homes in the area had sold for $690,000.

“Everybody’s jaws dropped” when the appraised value came in at the full, agreed-upon selling price,” says Ackerman.

In some cases, appraisals are even coming in higher — which was practically unheard of just a few months ago. For example, real estate pro Cara Ameer in Jacksonville Beach, Fla., says with home prices in the area rising 15 percent over the past year, she was concerned the appraisal on a two-bedroom townhouse wouldn’t reflect the current rise. A buyer offered to pay $5,000 above the $189,000 asking price. The appraisal came in above the selling price, Ameer says.

Source: “Home appraisals no longer derailing sales,” CNNMoney (May 15, 2013)

 

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California Median Home Prices Highest Level In Five Years

 funny-for-sale-sign

LOS ANGELES (April 15) – Strong sales in higher-cost coastal regions and heated market conditions drove California’s median home price to its highest level in March since May 2008, while inventory shortages continued to stifle home sales, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported.

“While home sales were essentially flat from February, sales declined moderately from last year, as an extreme shortage of available homes continued to dictate the market,” said C.A.R. President Don Faught.  “Statewide inventory dropped 36 percent from last March and was below 3 months for the second time in the past few months.  Supply conditions are particularly tight in the lower-priced segment of the market, as inventory for homes priced below $300k plunged more than 50 percent from the previous year.”

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a revised seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 417,520, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide.  March closings were up a slight 0.1 percent from a revised 417,310 in February but down 4.9 percent from a revised 439,260 in March 2012.  The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2013 if sales maintained the March pace throughout the year.  It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home climbed 13.7 percent from February’s $333,380 median price to $378,960 in March, reversing a two-month decline.  The month-to-month increase was the highest since C.A.R. began tracking this statistic in 1979.  The March price was up 28.2 percent from a revised $295,630 recorded in March 2012, marking the 13th consecutive month of annual price increases and the ninth consecutive month of double-digit annual gains.

“No doubt the dearth of home listings is driving the upsurge in the median price, as is an increase in sales in the higher-priced segments,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.   “Sales of homes priced $500,000 and higher are up more than 34 percent from last year, and have been on a rising trend since early 2012. Sales growth in the coastal regions – Marin, Orange, San Diego, and San Luis Obispo, in particular – helped push the statewide median price up to the highest level in more than four years.”

Other key facts of C.A.R.’s March 2013 resale housing report include:

• The available supply of homes for sale fell significantly in March, falling to a 2.9-month supply, as measured by C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index.  The March Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes was down from 3.6 months in February and down from 4.2 months in March 2012.  The index indicates the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.  A six- to seven-month supply is considered normal.

• Mortgage rates edged up in March, with the 30-year fixed-mortgage interest rate averaging 3.57 percent, up from 3.53 percent in February but down from 3.95 percent in March 2012, according to Freddie Mac.  Adjustable-mortgage interest rates also edged up, averaging 2.63 percent in March, up from 2.61 percent in February but down from 2.77 percent March 2012.

• Homes continued to move off the market faster in March, with the median number of days it took to sell a single-family home decreasing to 29.4 days in March, down from 34.2 days in February and down from a revised 52.2 days for the same period a year ago.

Multimedia:

• Unsold Inventory by price range.
• Change in sales by price range.
• Share of sales by price range

Note:  The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS® throughout the state, and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only.  County sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales.  Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home.  The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower-end or the upper-end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold.  Due to the low sales volume in some areas, median price changes in March may exhibit unusual fluctuation. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 100 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with 155,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

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