The housing market is stronger today than at any point since the Great Recession and has made progress in several key areas after hitting bottom in 2009, Freddie Mac reports in a blog post looking at the state of the housing market heading into spring.
Home sales are up 13 percent since their low point, Freddie Mac reports. Frank Notaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, predicts that home sales will rise about 3 percent in 2014.
Also, the agency reports that housing starts are up 50 percent since hitting bottom. Freddie Mac is predicting a nearly 20 percent increase in new-housing starts in 2014, “which will begin to help ease tight inventories in many markets.”
Housing prices have also been on the upswing, about 16 percent higher than their bottom in 2009, Freddie Mac reports. They expect home values to continue to rise this year, but at a more moderate 5 percent pace. Also, researchers say many markets are still posting housing values that are below their 2006 peaks.
Freddie Mac is forecasting mortgage rates to remain near their historic lows this year, but rates are expected to rise about a half-percentage point during the year to around a 5 percent average by the end of the year.
Source: “After Winter Chill, Time to Spring Forward,” Freddie Mac (April 10, 2014)
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In order to have a fully recovered housing market and economic recovery, economists point to the need for four positive indicators:
1. A healthy job market with low stable unemployment;
2. Mortgage delinquencies that have returned to historical averages;
3. Home prices consistent with an affordable mortgage payment–to–income ratio; and
4. Home sales that are in the range of historical norms.
So, is the housing market inching closer?
Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for January takes a look at how the housing market is performing among these four indicators. Economists note that the unemployment rate — while inching down — still remains high at 6.7 percent. Meanwhile, mortgage delinquencies have fallen to 5.88 percent — nearly half of their peak rate but still higher than the national average of about 2 percent, Freddie notes.
Home prices still have some room to grow without outpacing income growth, economists say.
“From 1999–2006, mortgage payments on a hypothetical 30-year fixed-rate mortgage would have increased by 50 percent more than income growth,” Freddie Mac notes in the report. “Currently, payment-to-income ratios are only 60 percent of the level we had in 1999, suggesting room for continued housing growth.”
Finally, home sales have risen over the past two years but remain below levels from a nearly a decade ago. Home sales, historically, average a rate of about 6 percent of the housing stock every year. They dropped to 4 percent during the housing crisis. Economists are predicting a 5.7 percent pace in 2014.
“As we start 2014, the housing recovery continues its steady pace,” Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “House-price gains will likely moderate from last year’s pace but rise about 5 percent in national indexes. Home sales, as well as other key indicators, continue to trend in the right direction, although in some markets we are seeing the sales recovery strengthen while many others remain weak.”
“So many couples have been living together and biding their time,” says Leigh Sigman, an Orlando lawyer. “I know many people who have coasted for years and touched base with me periodically — until they got equity in their homes.”
During the housing market crash, home prices fell dramatically in some areas, causing the home in a marriage to become one asset that no one wanted in a divorce because of the large amount of mortgage debt it carried, says Sigman.
But some metros are seeing that as home values rise, divorce rates are too.
“I have seen many of the deals we’re doing have involved a divorce — selling a house because of it or buying because of it,” says Robert Tenaglia, a real estate professional in Orlando. “When people don’t have equity and don’t have money, it dissuades them from going through the final step.”
Many couples may need the equity from the house sale to cover the costs of starting a new life and for a down payment on a new home or an apartment deposit, Tenaglia says.
Jenga Style Homes Photo courtesy of Pleated-jeans.com
In the next 15 months, 8.3 million home owners — about 18 percent of home owners who have a mortgage — are expected to gain enough equity to be in a better position to sell their homes, according to RealtyTrac’s September report on home equity.
“Steadily rising home prices are lifting all boats in this housing market and should spill over into more inventory of homes for sale in the coming months,” says Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “Home owners who already have ample equity are quickly building on that equity, while the 8.3 million homeowners on the fence with little or no equity are on track to regain enough equity to sell before 2015 if home prices continue to increase at the rate of 1.33 percent per month that they have since bottoming out in March 2012.
The 8.3 million of home owners have a range of 10 percent negative equity to 10 percent positive equity, according to RealtyTrac. Home owners with low equity may face challenges in selling a home due to the cost of the sale and having a down payment on a new home. As equity rises, more home owners are in the position to sell their home without having to resort such actions as a short sale.
The report also notes that one in four home owners in foreclosure also were found to have positive equity. Home owners with equity may have a better chance at selling their homes before letting the foreclosure process run its course, Blomquist says.
But that’s “assuming they realize they have equity and don’t miss the opportunity to leverage that equity,” Blomquist says. “Even home owners deeply underwater have reason for hope, with about 150,000 each month rising past the 25 percent negative equity milestone — although it will certainly take years rather than months before most of those homeowners have enough equity to sell other than via short sale.”
Foreclosures are continuing a steady fall, as home prices rise and the housing market picks up nationwide.
About 1 million homes were in some stage of foreclosure in May, down from 1.4 million in May 2012, a 29 percent decline, according to CoreLogic’s latest foreclosure report. As of May, the foreclosure inventory represented 2.6 percent of all homes with a mortgage — down from 3.5 percent a year prior.
There were 52,000 foreclosures completed nationwide in May, down 27 percent year over year. However, the numbers are still elevated compared to what’s considered normal for the market. Prior to the decline in the housing market in 2007, completed foreclosures averaged 21,000 per month between 2000 and 2006, according to CoreLogic.
Since September 2008 — the start of the financial crisis — about 4.4 million foreclosures have been completed, CoreLogic’s data shows.
Meanwhile, shadow inventory is down 34 percent from reaching its 2010 peak. It was under 2 million units in April, representing a 5.3 month supply.
“We continue to see a sharp drop in foreclosures around the country and, with it, a decrease in the size of the shadow inventory,” says Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Affordability, despite the rise in home prices over the past year, and consumer confidence are big contributors to these positive trends. We are particularly encouraged by the broad-based nature of the housing market recovery so far in 2013.”
The stock of seriously delinquent homes, which is the main driver of shadow inventory, is at the lowest level since December 2008, adds Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Over the last year, it has decreased in 42 states by double-digit figures, resulting in rapid declines in shadow inventory for the first quarter of 2013,” Fleming says.
The following five states account for nearly half of all completed foreclosures nationally and had the highest number of completed foreclosures in the last 12 months ending in May:
Pending home sales improved slightly in April and continue to be well above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Gains in the Northeast and Midwest were offset largely by declines in the West and South. The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 0.3 percent to 106.0 in April from 105.7 in March, and is 10.3 percent above April 2012 when it was 96.1; the data reflect contracts but not closings.
Home contract activity is at the highest level since the index hit 110.9 in April 2010, immediately before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. Pending sales have been above year-ago levels for the past 24 months.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a familiar pattern has developed. “The housing market continues to squeak out gains from already very positive conditions. Pending contracts so far this year easily correspond to higher closed home sales in 2013,” he said. Total existing-home sales are expected to rise just over 7 percent to about 5 million this year.
Mortgage giant Fannie Mae recently offered some predictions of what the housing market’s “normal” will look like in the next two years.
In its report, “Transition to ‘Normal’?”, Fannie says while the housing market has shown improvement, uncertainty remains over both the economy and the real estate market.
“Our forecast is that 2013 and 2014 will exhibit below-potential economic growth,” according to the white paper. “This is despite the fact that we expect the housing rebound will continue and that the economy will benefit from the gradual increased growth of U.S.-based manufacturing, as well as the expansion of domestic energy production.”
The following are some of the projections Fannie made in its report:
Mortgage rates to stay low: Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to remain low over the next few years. The mortgage giant expects rates will increase to no more than 4.2 percent by the end of 2014.
FHA loans may get more expensive: More costs may be assigned to Federal Housing Administration loans.
Refinancing drops: The boom in refinancing may have peaked last year with slower activity projected this year. “We expect 2012 to be seen as the high watermark for refinances and 2013 as the first of several transition years as the housing finance market transitions back to a more normal balance between purchase and refinance activity.”
Foreclosures continue to fall: Fannie expects foreclosures to continue to decline from their peaks as more alternatives to foreclosure are pursued.
Housing starts to rise: Fannie Mae predicts that housing starts will increase 23 percent in 2013 — which would be 60 percent more than the record low in 2010. Fannie expects housing starts won’t reach sustainable levels until 2016.
Mortgage originations grow: “Given our expectations of continued improvement in housing starts, home sales, and home prices in 2013,” Fannie Mae writes, “we project that purchase mortgage originations will rise to $642 billion from a forecast of $518 billion in 2012.”
When the housing market began declining, many people claimed that adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were the cause. However, recently they’ve been making a comeback, especially among affluent borrowers
An ARM offers an introductory period in which the borrower pays a lower interest rate than with a fixed loan; after that, the rate can fluctuate up or down.
With rates near historic lows, the safety of locking in a fixed-rate appeals to many borrowers. But these borrowers are paying a premium for that security. The spread between rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and the most-popular ARMs now stand at about one percentage point, more than double the difference just five years ago.
That means that homeowners who are planning to either move or pay off their mortgage over the next few years can save big with an ARM.
Borrowers can determine if an ARM is the right loan option for them by looking at their financial situation and the terms of the ARM. ARMs carry risks in periods of rising interest rates, but can be cheaper over a longer term if interest rates decline. An ARM may be a good option to consider for borrowers who plan to own the home for only a few years, expect an increase in future earnings, or the prevailing interest rate for a fixed-rate mortgage is too high.
Before deciding to apply for an ARM, borrowers should consider if their income is likely to rise enough to cover higher mortgage payments if interest rates increase; whether they will be taking on other sizable debts such as car loans or school tuition in the near future; how long they plan to own the home; and whether their mortgage payments can increase even if interest rates generally do not increase.
A big drop in inventories of for-sale homes across the nation has led to a buying frenzy in some sought-after neighborhoods, real estate professionals report. A gradual gain in home prices is also following suit, they say.
Last week, the National Association of REALTORS® reported an increase in pending home sales in every region in the country. The number of contracts signed in May for existing homes jumped 13 percent from a year ago, according to NAR.
NAR projects a 3 percent nationwide rise in existing-home prices this year and a 5.7 percent rise next year.
But more buyers are being met with a shrinking supply of homes on the market. New construction has slowed dramatically—to record lows—the last few years. A backlog of distressed homes have not yet hit the market. And many home owners are waiting to list their homes for sale until prices rise more.
“In the Atlanta area, we are 40 percent below where inventory was this time last year,” Debra Bradley, managing broker for Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Buckhead, Ga., told Forbes.com “Generally inventory goes up this time of year, not down.”
Inventories of for-sale homes appear to be lowest for less expensive properties, at which investors and first-time home buyers often buy, real estate professionals report.
“It’s different today for a buyer being in the market,” says Rick Davidson, Century 21 Real Estate chief executive. “They might not find that deal of the century that they may have expected to find.”
Several housing markets are now reporting multiple offers and bidding wars surfacing, due to the lack of inventory in some markets.
“Most houses below $250,000 priced realistically are attracting large numbers of offers in a short time, and many exceed the asking price,” says Mike Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business.
Industry insiders appear less concerned about the shadow inventory of distressed homes that have yet to hit the market.
“It’s not being let out to the market in bulk,” Beth Butler, president of ONE Sotheby’s International Realty in Miami, told Forbes.com. “It’s coming slowly and it’s not seriously impacting the market one way or the other. Truth be told we could use the inventory!”
Staff photo of Lawrence Yun (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Pending home sales retrenched in April following three consecutive monthly gains, but are notably higher than a year ago, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 5.5 percent to 95.5 from a downwardly revised 101.1 in March but is 14.4 percent above April 2011 when it was 83.5. The data reflect contracts but not closings.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a one-month setback in light of many months of gains does not change the fundamentally improving housing market conditions. “Home contract activity has been above year-ago levels now for 12 consecutive months. The housing recovery momentum continues,” he said.
Yun notes home sales are staying well above the levels seen from 2008 through 2011. “Housing market activity has clearly broken out at notably higher levels and is on track to see the best performance since 2007,” he said. “All of the major housing market indicators are expected to trend gradually up, but a new federal budget must be passed before the end of the year for the economy to continue to move forward.”
The PHSI in the Northeast rose 0.9 percent to 78.9 in April and is 19.9 percent higher than April 2011. In the Midwest the index slipped 0.3 percent to 93.0 but is 23.0 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South fell 6.8 percent to an index of 105.7 in April but are 13.3 percent higher than April 2011. In the West the index dropped 12.0 percent in April to 94.9 but is 5.1 percent above a year ago.
The housing forecast has been upgraded, with existing-home sales expected to reach 4.66 million this year, compared with 4.26 million in 2011. The outlook for 2013 is now 4.92 million, but could vary significantly depending on two scenarios.
If lending returns to normal, the 2013 outlook for existing-home sales would measurably improve to 5.3 million. However, a fiscal cliff scenario of higher taxes and sharp spending cuts beginning in early 2013, which is an unlikely event but still worth noting, would lower the sales projection to 4.5 million.
Because of measurably lower inventory supplies, the forecast for home prices has been upwardly revised with the median existing-home price projected to rise 2 to 3 percent this year and 4 to 5 percent in 2013, with wide local market variations. Miami and Phoenix will easily achieve double-digit price growth by year end.
Yun said the price gains will measurably reduce the number of underwater homeowners. “For example, a 5 percent national price gain means the number of underwater home owners would fall to about 9 million from current estimates of around 11 million. A 10 percent gain, say over the next two years, would reduce the underwater status to about 7 million households out of 75 million owner-occupied homes,” he said.
About 25 million homes are owned free and clear without a mortgage.
Though the proportion of distressed properties is still high, the numbers have been falling over the past two years. “The diminishing share of distressed properties is another reason for higher home prices in upcoming months,” Yun added.
